4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

0-1 HC Kellen Moore
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

1-0 HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NO
36.7%
DET
63.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 23 16–30
–
DET 24 17–31
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

NO

Cameron Jordan LB Out Hamstring
Audric Estimé RB Out Thigh
Oscar Delp TE Out Hamstring
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Knee

DET

Christian Izien S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 30
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:41 TD DET (3:41) 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – DET 6
  • Q3 11:18 TD DET (11:18) 0-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – DET 13
  • Q3 08:59 TD DET (8:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 14-A.St. Brown for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – DET 20
  • Q3 04:32 TD NO (4:32) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – DET 21
  • Q3 00:34 TD NO (:34) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – DET 21
  • Q4 07:45 FG NO (7:45) 10-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. NO 17 – DET 21
  • Q4 02:35 FG DET (2:35) 39-J.Bates 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. NO 17 – DET 24
  • Q4 01:13 TD NO (1:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – DET 24
  • Q5 05:07 TD DET (5:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – DET 30
  • Q5 01:38 TD NO (1:38) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 30 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NO 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 23 for 3 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 30-K.Dorsey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:15) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:43) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 26 for 2 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:47) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:40) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 21 for 16 yards (31-J.Howden).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:31) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NO 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 14 for 2 yards (17-T.Martin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:21) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 14 for no gain (17-T.Martin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 38%

    (:26) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:34) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NO 30, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 46 for 16 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:12) 3-J.Fox punts 31 yards to NO 24, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-35-J.Bachie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (7:45) 10-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:35) 39-J.Bates 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 38 for 15 yards (4-D.Reed).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:37) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →