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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 75

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NO 30, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 46 for 16 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model