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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 56

Detroit Lions 24 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:37) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.49 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -1.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model