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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 61

Detroit Lions 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 14 for no gain (17-T.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model