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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:26) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model