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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NO 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 23 for 3 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model