4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 5

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 39-J.Bates 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model