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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 58

Detroit Lions 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model