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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 14 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 10-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP