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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP