Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 17 – Detroit Lions 24

(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 38 for 15 yards (4-D.Reed).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP