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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 55

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 3-J.Fox punts 31 yards to NO 24, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-35-J.Bachie.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP