Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(2:43) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 26 for 2 yards (44-I.Stalbird).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model