Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(12:40) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 21 for 16 yards (31-J.Howden).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model