Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 68

Detroit Lions 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(9:31) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NO 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 14 for 2 yards (17-T.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.89 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model