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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 41

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.26 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP