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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.16 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model