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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 8-R.Rehkow punts 41 yards to JAX 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 11-P.Washington to JAX 24 for 3 yards (46-W.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model