Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.98 EP
61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model