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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 2-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP