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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 22

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.86 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.43 EP