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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 20, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model