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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 9 yards (50-B.Combs; 25-R.Lane).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model