Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 45 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.94 EP
56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -0.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model