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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model