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Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US
🏟 Dome
Spread -5.5
O/U 43.5
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- QB edge to KC: Kirk Cousins (LV) -0.046 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.155 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LV defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
KC
26
–
LV
21
Projected margin: KC by 5
Projected total: 47
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.