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Kansas City Chiefs

4-0 HC Andy Reid
@
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Las Vegas Raiders

3-1 HC Klint Kubliak
Sunday 2026-10-04 · 16:25 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

KC
56.6%
LV
43.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.031 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 25 18–32
–
LV 21 14–28
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Josh Simmons T Out Back

LV

Jackson Powers-Johnson G Out Groin
Aidan O'Connell QB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
LV 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 TD LV (8:18) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-I.Thomas for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – LV 6
  • Q1 02:26 TD KC (2:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 2-T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 03:23 FG LV (3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 7 – LV 10
  • Q2 01:26 FG KC (1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. KC 10 – LV 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG LV (:03) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 10 – LV 13
  • Q4 14:54 TD KC (14:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 2-T.Thornton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – LV 13
  • Q4 11:17 FG LV (11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 17 – LV 16
  • Q4 04:58 FG LV (4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. KC 17 – LV 19
  • Q4 03:25 TD KC (3:25) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LV 19
  • Q4 03:10 TD KC (3:10) 9-K.Walker right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – LV 19
  • Q4 01:54 TD LV (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 89-B.Bowers for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 30 – LV 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:21) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 38%

    (10:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:08) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 14, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%

    (11:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 33 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-E.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (9:21) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 40 for 1 yard (8-K.Fulton; 43-J.Cochrane).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (3:23) 14-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%

    (11:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:49) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 42 for 27 yards (50-S.Olubi).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-81-N.Remigio, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at KC 21.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson to LV 10 for 4 yards (29-X.Nwankpa).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%

    (4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 31%

    (1:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 1, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-X.Nwankpa.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed).

    See the full breakdown →