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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(9:21) Direct snap to 34-C.Heyward. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to LV 40 for 1 yard (8-K.Fulton; 43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model