Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to KC 21, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio to KC 21 for no gain. PENALTY on KC-81-N.Remigio, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at KC 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.94 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model