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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 52 yards to LV 1, impetus ends at LV 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-29-X.Nwankpa.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.70 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model