4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model