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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model