4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 18

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Jeanty (23-D.Tranquill) [56-G.Karlaftis].

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.99 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model