Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(:37) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.33 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 84, worth -1.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP