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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 14-M.Araiza punts 33 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-10-E.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP