Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(:08) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 14, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.17 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model