Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(4:49) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-47-A.Ward. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 42 for 27 yards (50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.66 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model