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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Punt formation) 14-M.Araiza right end to KC 42 for 12 yards (34-C.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP