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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model