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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 14-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model