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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to LV 6, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Benson to LV 10 for 4 yards (29-X.Nwankpa).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.01 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model