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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 14-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP