Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(8:45) 14-M.Araiza punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.82 EP
74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model