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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.53 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model