Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 38

(8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.75 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model