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Atlanta Falcons

2-2 HC Raheem Morris
@
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New Orleans Saints

1-3 HC Kellen Moore
Monday 2026-10-05 · 20:15 ET Caesars Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

ATL
47.0%
NO
53.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than NO

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21 14–28
–
NO 24 17–31
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

ATL

Samson Ebukam DE Questionable Hamstring
Divine Deablo LB Questionable Hamstring
Yasir Abdullah LB Questionable Illness

NO

Kaden Elliss LB Out Calf
Carl Granderson LB Out Ankle
Anfernee Jennings LB Out Knee
Noah Fant TE Questionable Abdomen
Pete Werner LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 45
–
NO 24

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:43 TD ATL (13:43) 7-Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 00:52 TD ATL (:52) 7-Bi.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – NO 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 14 – NO 6
  • Q2 09:03 TD ATL (9:03) 15-Br.Robinson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – NO 7
  • Q2 03:10 FG ATL (3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ATL 24 – NO 7
  • Q3 07:40 FG NO (7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright. ATL 24 – NO 10
  • Q3 02:15 TD ATL (2:15) 15-Br.Robinson right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 30 – NO 10
  • Q4 13:03 TD NO (13:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 31 – NO 16
  • Q4 09:57 TD ATL (9:57) 9-M.Penix pass deep middle to 4-J.Dotson for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 37 – NO 17
  • Q4 06:58 TD ATL (6:58) 15-Br.Robinson left guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 44 – NO 17
  • Q4 01:19 TD NO (1:19) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 45 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 18 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (10:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to NO 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 76%

    (5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for 2 yards (89-C.Woerner; 53-K.Daniels).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 45%

    (:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 21 for -9 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 38%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam].

    See the full breakdown →