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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 21 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model