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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-C.Adomitis. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 49 for 25 yards (4-O.Delp).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model