Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 31

(1:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 14-D.Vele to ATL 25 for 18 yards (31-X.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP

KICK -0.22 EP

55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
45% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model