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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 31

What Actually Happened

(13:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to ATL 14 for 2 yards (99-C.Thomas; 54-B.Dorlus).

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model