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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 10-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP